24 Sept · 16:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1426
FormLWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sturma
LZ
🇨🇿Lukas Zustina
ELO 1393
FormLLLLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zustina🌟Sturma rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (89)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H2-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.