24 Sept · 18:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LZ
🇨🇿Lukas Zustina
ELO 1393
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Lysek
JL
🇨🇿Jakub Lysek
ELO 1411
FormLLWLL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zustina🌟Lysek goes over total as favourite 71% (17)
Fair odds · Lysek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.