24 Sept · 18:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PC
🇨🇿Pavel Chvatal
ELO 1574
FormLWWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Chvatal
RN
🇨🇿Radek Neterda
ELO 1529
FormLWLWW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Neterda🌟Chvatal rarely covers set handicap as favourite 26% (27)
Fair odds · Chvatal
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H15-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.