24 Sept · 15:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MD
🇨🇿Miroslav Dolezal
ELO 1446
FormWLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Dolezal
JL
🇨🇿Jakub Lysek
ELO 1411
FormLLWLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lysek🌟Lysek goes over total as underdog 70% (33)
Fair odds · Dolezal
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.