24 Sept · 21:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PJ
🇨🇿Patrik Jokiel
ELO 1364
FormLWLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Ogrocki
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1469
FormWLWWW
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jokiel
Fair odds · Ogrocki
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+105
H2H29-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+105)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (29-13)