24 Sept · 17:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JM
🇨🇿Jirasek Martin
ELO 1539
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Martin
RN
🇨🇿Radek Neterda
ELO 1529
FormLWLWW
51%
49%
🌟Martin stays under total as favourite 67% (36)
Fair odds · Martin
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.