24 Sept · 21:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1467
FormLWLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Martin
JM
🇨🇿Jirasek Martin
ELO 1539
FormWWWLW
44%
56%
🌟Martin stays under total as favourite 67% (36)
Fair odds · Martin
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+72
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+72)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)