25 Sept · 08:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1600
FormWLLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Krupnik
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1511
FormLWLLL
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pawlik🌟Pawlik covers set handicap as underdog 65% (80)
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+89
H2H21-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+89)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (21-15)