25 Sept · 11:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DV
🇨🇿David Vesecky
ELO 1615
FormLWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Kadavy
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Kadavy
ELO 1686
FormLWWLW
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vesecky
Fair odds · Kadavy
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+71
H2H11-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-9)