25 Sept · 12:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1451
FormWWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sturma
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Snr
ELO 1436
FormLLWWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Snr🌟Sturma rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (91)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H16-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.