25 Sept · 09:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PC
🇨🇿Pavel Chvatal
ELO 1576
FormWLWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Chvatal
MF
🇨🇿Milan Flesar
ELO 1479
FormWLWLW
58%
42%
🌟Chvatal rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (29)
Fair odds · Chvatal
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+97
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+97)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)