25 Sept · 11:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AD
🇨🇿Ales Drozd
ELO 1498
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Drozd
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1486
FormWWWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Drozd
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H7-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.