25 Sept · 10:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1511
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Precek
EP
🇨🇿Erik Precek
ELO 1530
FormLWLWW
48%
52%
🌟Pawlik covers set handicap as underdog 65% (80)
Fair odds · Precek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H9-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.