25 Sept · 10:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kocab
ELO 1676
FormLLWWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Cerny
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1782
FormLLWWW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Cerny
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~74 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+106
H2H23-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+106)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-8)