25 Sept · 08:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kocab
ELO 1676
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kadavy
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Kadavy
ELO 1686
FormLWWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Kadavy
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H20-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.