25 Sept · 17:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1495
FormLWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Jr
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1476
FormWLWLW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Jr
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H18-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.