25 Sept · 18:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1460
FormWWWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Sturma
JL
🇨🇿Jakub Lysek
ELO 1387
FormLLWLL
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lysek🌟Sturma rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (91)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+73
H2H26-26
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+73)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)