25 Sept · 17:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JL
🇨🇿Jakub Lysek
ELO 1387
FormLLWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Mandrysz
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1476
FormWLWLW
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lysek🌟Lysek goes over total as underdog 70% (33)
Fair odds · Mandrysz
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+89
H2H13-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+89)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-10)