25 Sept · 19:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1546
FormWWWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Kosacky
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kosacky
ELO 1629
FormLWLLL
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sulc
Fair odds · Kosacky
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+83
H2H30-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+83)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (30-9)