25 Sept · 17:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ZZ
🇨🇿Zdenek Zahradka
ELO 1408
FormLWWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Moravec
PM
🇨🇿Petr Moravec
ELO 1498
FormWLLLL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+90
H2H8-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+90)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-5)