25 Sept · 21:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kanak
ELO 1531
FormLLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Moravec
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1585
FormWWWWW
46%
54%
🌟Kanak covers set handicap as underdog 76% (45)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+54
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.