26 Sept · 08:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IJ
🇨🇿Ivan Jemelka
ELO 1487
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jemelka
PC
🇨🇿Peter Chvojka
ELO 1480
FormLLLLL
51%
49%
🌟Chvojka covers set handicap as underdog 64% (50)
Fair odds · Jemelka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H3-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.