26 Sept · 08:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DH
🇨🇿David Hons
ELO 1559
FormWLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Lovl
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1578
FormWWWLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Lovl
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H18-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.