26 Sept · 12:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1458
FormLLWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Sulc
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1525
FormLLLWW
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Langer🌟Langer covers set handicap as underdog 62% (174)
Fair odds · Sulc
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+67
H2H37-31
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (37-31)