26 Sept · 10:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PC
🇨🇿Peter Chvojka
ELO 1480
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jr
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1490
FormLLWWL
49%
51%
🌟Chvojka covers set handicap as underdog 64% (50)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H2-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.