26 Sept · 14:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Polak
ELO 1658
FormLWWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Polak
MH
🇨🇿Matej Holub
ELO 1571
FormLWLWL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Polak
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 57% · 1.74· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+87
H2H0-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+87)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)