26 Sept · 10:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1578
FormWWWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Lovl
RV
🇨🇿Richard Vavricka
ELO 1477
FormLLWWW
58%
42%
🌟Vavricka covers set handicap as underdog 62% (29)
Fair odds · Lovl
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+101
H2H4-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+101)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-1)