26 Sept · 12:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OS
🇨🇿Oldrich Stehlik
ELO 1612
FormWLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Polak
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Polak
ELO 1658
FormLWWWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Polak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H5-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.