26 Sept · 12:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1528
FormWLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Strelec
PC
🇨🇿Peter Chvojka
ELO 1480
FormLLLLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chvojka🌟Chvojka covers set handicap as underdog 64% (50)
Fair odds · Strelec
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.