26 Sept · 13:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JH
🇨🇿Jakub Hitzger
ELO 1684
FormWLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Hitzger
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Polak
ELO 1658
FormLWWWW
52%
48%
🌟Polak covers set handicap as underdog 67% (15)
Fair odds · Hitzger
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.