26 Sept · 13:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JJ
🇨🇿Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
ELO 1502
FormWLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Strelec
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1528
FormWLLLL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jnr🌟Jnr covers set handicap as underdog 74% (47)
Fair odds · Strelec
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.