26 Sept · 13:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MH
🇨🇿Matej Holub
ELO 1571
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Stehlik
OS
🇨🇿Oldrich Stehlik
ELO 1612
FormWLLWW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Holub🌟Stehlik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (12)
Fair odds · Stehlik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.