26 Sept · 14:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JH
🇨🇿Jakub Hitzger
ELO 1684
FormWLLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Hitzger
OS
🇨🇿Oldrich Stehlik
ELO 1612
FormWLLWW
56%
44%
Fair odds · Hitzger
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+72
H2H15-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+72)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-8)