26 Sept · 14:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1525
FormLLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sulc
JC
🇨🇿Jiri Cerny
ELO 1486
FormWWLWW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Cerny
Fair odds · Sulc
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~73 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H14-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.