26 Sept · 14:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TL
🇨🇿Tomas Lysek
ELO 1492
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Volny
JV
🇨🇿Jakub Volny
ELO 1525
FormLWWLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lysek🌟Volny rarely covers set handicap as favourite 22% (58)
Fair odds · Volny
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 48% · 2.08· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H6-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.