26 Sept · 11:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jakub Komorowicz
ELO 1434
FormLLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Szostak
MS
🇨🇿Michal Szostak
ELO 1474
FormWLWLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Szostak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H15-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.