26 Sept · 17:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1480
FormLWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Ogrocki
JP
🇨🇿Jan Przybyla
ELO 1434
FormLWWLL
54%
46%
🌟Przybyla stays under total as underdog 62% (61)
Fair odds · Ogrocki
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H12-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.