26 Sept · 18:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇨🇿Martin Lorenc
ELO 1523
FormWWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lorenc
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1482
FormWLWLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Lorenc
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H6-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.