26 Sept · 22:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JV
🇨🇿Jiri Vanous
ELO 1383
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vanous
PJ
🇨🇿Patrik Jokiel
ELO 1371
FormLWLWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jokiel🌟Vanous rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (39)
Fair odds · Vanous
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H8-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.