27 Sept · 10:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1460
FormLWLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Sulc
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1541
FormWLWLL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Sulc
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+81
H2H38-32
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+81)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (38-32)