27 Sept · 08:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1541
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kulisek
MK
🇨🇿Marek Kulisek
ELO 1561
FormLLLWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sulc
Fair odds · Kulisek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H36-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.