27 Sept · 13:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1460
FormLWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Vavricka
RV
🇨🇿Richard Vavricka
ELO 1487
FormWLLWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Vavricka
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H9-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.