27 Sept · 09:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobota
ELO 1406
FormLLLWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Jemelka
IJ
🇨🇿Ivan Jemelka
ELO 1509
FormWLWWW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Jemelka
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+103
H2H0-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+103)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)