27 Sept · 10:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1588
FormWWLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Lovl
MF
🇨🇿Milan Flesar
ELO 1501
FormWWWLW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Lovl
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~74 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+87
H2H7-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+87)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-2)