27 Sept · 08:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jonas Kulveit
ELO 1470
FormWWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kral
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1499
FormLLWWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kulveit🌟Kral goes over total as favourite 74% (88)
Fair odds · Kral
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H7-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.