27 Sept · 09:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1460
FormLWLWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Kulisek
MK
🇨🇿Marek Kulisek
ELO 1561
FormLLLWL
42%
58%
🔥 Underdog lean · Langer
Fair odds · Kulisek
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 75% · 1.33· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+101
H2H9-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+101)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-1)