27 Sept · 09:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kanak
ELO 1528
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Stusek
DS
🇨🇿David Stusek
ELO 1562
FormLWWLL
47%
53%
🌟Kanak covers set handicap as underdog 76% (49)
Fair odds · Stusek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.