27 Sept · 17:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TP
🇨🇿Tomas Palan
ELO 1500
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Zivny
PZ
🇨🇿Petr Zivny
ELO 1503
FormLLLLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Zivny
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+3
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.