27 Sept · 18:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JD
🇨🇿Jaroslav Dohnal
ELO 1478
FormWLLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Sebl
JS
🇨🇿Jachym Sebl
ELO 1593
FormLWWLW
41%
59%
🌟Dohnal goes over total as underdog 62% (45)
Fair odds · Sebl
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 36% · 2.76· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
19%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+115
H2H16-51
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+115)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)