27 Sept · 17:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KP
🇨🇿Kiejda Patryk
ELO 1539
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Patryk
PK
🇨🇿Pasek Kamil
ELO 1502
FormLWLLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Patryk
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H24-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.